1Q24 Small-Cap Recap—Royce
article 04-01-2024

1Q24 Small-Cap Recap

The Small-Cap Rebound Slowed—But Is Still Rolling On

TELL US
WHAT YOU
THINK

A Positive Quarter for Small-Cap Stocks

As long-term small-cap investors, we learned long ago that a quarter is nearly always too short a span by which to judge the worth of investment or the direction of a performance cycle. We were once more reminded of the importance of this observation when reviewing the performance for the small-cap Russell 2000 Index versus its large-cap counterpart, the Russell 1000 Index for 1Q24.

The small-cap index rose a more than respectable 5.2% in 2024’s opening quarter, trailing the Russell 1000, which gained 10.3%. The large-cap index continued to be dominated by mega-cap stocks, as evidenced by the 11.9% advance for the Russell Top 50 Index in 1Q24. Once more, returns skewed higher the further up the capitalization scale one went, with the Russell Microcap Index up 4.7% for the quarter.

Bigger Was Better in 1Q24
Russell Index Returns, 12/31/23-3/31/24

Bigger Was Better in 1Q24

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Context Matters

Yet in our view these quarterly results for the U.S. equity indexes do not tell the whole story. From the most recent small-cap low on 10/27/23, when large-cap indexes were also scuffling, the Russell 2000 advanced 30.7% and the Russell 1000 was up 28.9%. Moreover, from that low through 2023’s high on 12/27/23, the small-cap index rose 26.6% versus 17.2% for the Russell 1000. The Microcap Index was especially strong, rising 30.8% over this 60-day span, while the Russell Top 50 was up “only” 14.8%.

Context Is Key in Understanding Recent Performance
Returns for the Russell 2000 and Russell 1000 Indexes

Context Is Key in Understanding Recent Performance

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

It seems clear to us, then, that the first quarter of 2024 was a consolidation period—a common occurrence after particularly sharp short-term rallies—when investors took gains and/or flew back to the—perceived in our estimation—safety of mega-cap stocks. From 12/28/23 through 3/31/24, the Russell 2000 had a 3.2% gain while the Russell Microcap was up 2.5%, the Russell 1000 rose 10.0%, and the Russell Top 50 was up 11.6%.

Small-Cap Value and Growth Vie for Long-Term Leadership

A similar dynamic has played out within small-cap. The Russell 2000 Value Index (+26.8%) and Russell 2000 Growth Index (+26.4%) were virtually neck and neck from 10/27/23 through 12/27/23. This was somewhat surprising, and certainly encouraging, as small-cap value typically trails in short-term upswings, especially those with dramatic, double-digit gains. This role reversal then held sway into the first quarter, as the small-cap value index was up slightly, 2.9%, while small-cap growth rose 7.6%.

This same jockeying for pole position could be seen in longer-term annualized performance periods. The Russell 2000 Value was ahead for the 3-, and 5-year periods ended 3/31/24 while the Russell 2000 Growth led for the 1-, and 10-year periods.

Elsewhere in Small-Cap

Investing in high-quality small-cap companies—those with high returns on invested capital, discernible competitive advantages, and sustainable business franchises—is a cornerstone of our work. We were therefore interested to see recent results for the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, which, unlike its large-cap S&P 500 sibling, requires that companies meet “investability and financial viability criteria” for index inclusion. For example, prospective constituents must have positive as-reported earnings over the most recent quarter, as well as for the most recent four quarters summed together. This requirement makes the index something of a proxy for small-cap quality.

So, it was interesting to us that the S&P SmallCap 600 trailed off the October low, up 25.7% from 10/27/23 through 12/27/23, and from the December high through the end of March, up 0.9% from 12/27/23 through 3/31/24. These results are potentially important because in our experience profitable companies typically trail during the early stages of sustainable small-cap rebounds.

We also found it notable that small-caps outside the U.S. trailed their bigger cousins—and did so by a wider margin than we have seen over the last several quarters between the two asset classes. The MSCI ACWI ex-USA Small Index was up 2.1% in 1Q24 versus a 5.2% gain for the MSCI ACWI ex-USA Large-Cap Index. Needless to say, this wider-than-has-been usual spread bears watching through the remainder of 2024.

The Small-Cap Sector Story

Based on contributions to return, Information Technology and Industrials led the Russell 2000’s 11 equity sectors in 1Q24, followed by Energy. The biggest detractors were Financials—where banks dragged down results for the entire sector—Real Estate, and Utilities.

In spite of their usual sensitivity to falling interest rates, both Energy sector and Health Care were positive contributors in 1Q24. Perhaps most surprising in this context was the impressive strength from the construction & engineering group within Industrials—which was the fourth top-contributing industry in the Russell 2000 for 1Q24.

An Optimistic Outlook in 3 Charts

We believe that small-cap has important advantages over large-cap that set the asset class up for market leadership going forward. First, the Russell 2000 continues to have a substantially more attractive valuation than its large-cap counterpart at the end March based on our preferred index valuation metric of enterprise value to earnings before interest and taxes, or EV/EBIT.

Relative Valuations for Small- and Micro-Caps vs. Large Caps Are Near Their Lowest in 20 Years
Russell 2000 and Russell Microcap vs. Russell 1000 Median LTM EV/EBIT¹ (ex. Negative EBIT Companies), 3/31/04 through 3/31/24

Relative Valuations for Small- and Micro-Caps vs. Large Caps Are Near Their Lowest in 25 Years

¹Last twelve months Enterprise Value/Earnings Before Interest and Taxes

Small-cap value also continued to sell at a below average valuation vis-à-vis small-cap growth at the end of the first quarter, as measured by EV/EBIT. Those micro-cap stocks with positive EBIT—roughly half the companies in the Russell Microcap Index at the end of March—also remained very attractively valued relative to large-cap based on EV/EBIT. (By comparison, 67% of the companies in the Russell 2000 had positive EBIT and more than 90% in the Russell 1000 had positive EBIT as of 3/31/24.)

Second, we reiterate our contention that as the U.S. economy experiences ever more tangible benefits accrued from reshoring, the CHIPS Act, and several infrastructure projects, advantages will flow to many small-cap companies. Third, earnings growth for small-cap companies is expected to be higher than for larger-cap businesses through the rest of 2024.

Small-Cap’s Estimated Earnings Growth Is Expected to Be Higher in 2024 than Large-Cap’s
1-Year EPS¹ Growth as of 3/31/24

An Up and Down Quarter for Stocks

¹Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated as a company’s profit divided by the outstanding shares of its common stock. The EPS Growth Estimates are the pre-calculated mean long-term EPS growth rate estimates by brokerage analysts. Long Term Growth (LTG) is the annual EPS growth that the company can sustain over the next 3 or 5 years. Both estimates are the average of those provided by analysts working for brokerage firms who provide research coverage on each individual security as reported by FactSet. All non-equity securities, investment companies, companies without brokerage analyst coverage are excluded. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Additionally, we tend to hold companies with little or no debt—a distinct advantage in our view in a world where the cost of capital matters again.

Finally, we understand the frustrations of investors who have experienced underwhelming small-cap returns, especially for the 3 years ended 3/31/24, when the Russell 2000 lost 0.1%. However, when the small-cap index had low or negative returns over annualized 3-year periods, subsequent 3-year annualized returns were positive 99% of the time, in 66 of 67 periods, and averaged an impressive 16.7%, beating the Russell 2000’s long-term average annualized 3-year return of 10.7%.

99% of the Time, Positive 3-Year Returns Have Followed Low Return Markets
Subsequent Average Annualized 3-Year Performance for the Russell 2000 Following 3-Year Annualized Return Ranges of Less Than 3%, 12/31/81-3/31/24

99% of the Time, Positive 3-Year Returns Have Followed Low Return Markets

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
As of 3/31/24, the average of subsequent 3-year return ranges <3% has 67 periods, the average 3-year return since inception has 508 periods.

With valuations, earnings, and fundamentals all favoring select small-caps, we are decidedly optimistic about the prospects for active and risk-conscious small-cap management going forward.

Important Disclosure Information

The thoughts concerning recent market movements and future prospects for small-company stocks are solely those of Royce Investment Partners, and, of course, there can be no assurances with respect to future small-cap market performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Historical market trends are not necessarily indicative of future market movements.

The performance data and trends outlined in this presentation are presented for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Historical market trends are not necessarily indicative of future market movements.

Average Annual Total Returns as of 3/31/2024 (%)

  QTD1 1YR 3YR 5YR 10YR SINCE
INCEPT.
DATE ANNUAL
OPERATING EXPENSES
NET               GROSS
Pennsylvania Mutual 6.43 24.64 6.34 11.62 8.65 N/A N/A  0.96  0.96
Dividend Value 10.53 27.48 8.12 10.86 7.64 8.88 05/03/04  1.34  1.62
Global Financial Services 7.63 26.30 2.20 9.17 7.10 8.01 12/31/03  1.57  1.98
International Premier -2.27 -1.94 -6.01 2.09 4.85 5.25 12/31/10  1.44  1.59
Micro-Cap 4.45 21.55 2.43 11.74 6.27 10.52 12/31/91  1.24  1.24
Small-Cap Opportunity 5.16 18.66 2.94 14.13 8.82 11.99 11/19/96  1.23  1.23
Premier 5.56 18.18 4.83 10.42 8.58 11.34 12/31/91  1.18  1.18
Small-Cap Special Equity 2.17 11.49 5.32 8.25 6.27 8.62 05/01/98  1.21  1.21
Small-Cap Total Return 4.33 26.53 6.44 10.17 7.81 10.33 12/15/93  1.26  1.26
Small-Cap Value 3.51 26.77 7.63 8.71 5.60 8.93 06/14/01  1.49  1.59
Smaller-Companies Growth 9.20 16.67 -6.08 8.21 6.96 10.26 06/14/01  1.49  1.55
Russell 2000
5.18 19.71 -0.10 8.10 7.58 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
Russell 2500
6.92 21.43 2.97 9.90 8.84 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
MSCI ACWI SC
3.91 16.46 1.62 8.00 6.77 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
MSCI ACWI x USA SC
2.11 12.80 0.38 6.24 4.74 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
Russell Microcap
4.68 17.78 -4.89 6.90 5.96 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
Russell 2000 Value
2.90 18.75 2.22 8.17 6.87 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
Russell 2000 Growth
7.58 20.35 -2.68 7.38 7.89 N/A N/A  N/A  N/A
1 Not annualized.

All performance information reflects past performance, is presented on a total return basis, reflects the reinvestment of distributions, and does not reflect the deduction of taxes a shareholder would pay on Fund distributions or the redemption of Fund shares. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate, so that shares may be worth more or less than their original cost when redeemed. Investment and Service Class shares redeemed within 30 days of purchase may be subject to a 1% redemption fee payable to the Fund (2% for Royce International Premier Fund). Redemption fees are not reflected in the performance shown above; if they were, performance would be lower. Current performance may be higher or lower than performance quoted. Current month-end performance may be obtained at www.royceinvest.com. All performance and expense information reflects results of the Funds’ oldest share Class (Investment Class or Service Class, as the case may be). Price and total return information is based on net asset values calculated for shareholder transactions. Annual gross operating expenses reflect the Fund’s gross total annual operating expenses and include management fees, any 12b-1 distribution and service fees, other expenses, and any applicable acquired fund fees and expenses. Annual net operating expenses reflect contractual fee waivers and/or expense reimbursements. All expense information is reported as of the Fund’s most current prospectus. Royce & Associates has contractually agreed to waive fees and/or reimburse operating expenses, excluding brokerage commissions, taxes, interest, litigation expenses, acquired fund fees and expenses, and other expenses not borne in the ordinary course of business, to the extent necessary to maintain net operating expenses at or below: 1.34% for Royce Dividend Value Fund; 1.44% for Royce International Premier Fund; and 1.49% for each the Royce Global Financial Services, Small-Cap Value, and Smaller-Companies Growth Funds through April 30, 2024. Acquired fund fees and expenses reflect the estimated amount of the fees and expenses incurred indirectly by the Fund through its investments in mutual funds and other investment companies.

Service Class shares bear an annual distribution expense that is not borne by the Funds’ Investment Class. If such distribution expenses had been reflected for Funds showing Investment Class performance, returns would have been lower. Investments in securities of micro-cap, small-cap, and/or mid-cap companies may involve considerably more risk than investments in securities of larger-cap companies. (Please see “Primary Risks for Fund Investors” in the prospectus.) Certain Funds invest a significant portion of their respective assets in foreign companies that may be subject to different risks than investments in securities of U.S. companies, including adverse political, social, economic, or other developments that are unique to a particular country or region. (Please see “Investing in Foreign Securities” in the prospectus.) Therefore, the prices of securities of foreign companies in particular countries or regions may, at times, move in a different direction than those of securities of U.S. companies. (Please see “Primary Risk of Fund Investors” in the prospectus.) Certain Funds generally invest a significant portion of their assets in a limited number of stocks, which may involve considerably more risk than a more broadly diversified portfolio because a decline in the value of any of these stocks would cause their overall value to decline to a greater degree. A broadly diversified portfolio, however, does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. (See "Primary Risks for Fund Investors" in the respective prospectus.) Please read the prospectus carefully before investing or sending money.

This material is not authorized for distribution unless preceded or accompanied by a current prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing or sending money. The performance data and trends outlined in this article are presented for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Historical market trends are not necessarily indicative of future market movements. Investments in securities of micro-cap, small-cap, and/or mid-cap companies may involve considerably more risk than investments in securities of larger-cap companies. (Please see "Primary Risks for Fund Investors" in the prospectus.) Investments in foreign companies may be subject to different risks than investments in securities of U.S. companies, including adverse political, social, economic, or other developments that are unique to a particular country or region. (Please see "Investing in International Securities" in the prospectus.)

Return on Invested Capital is calculated by dividing a company’s past 12 months of operating income (earnings before interest and taxes) by its average invested capital (total equity, less cash and cash equivalents, plus total debt, minority interest, and preferred stock).

Enterprise Value measures a company’s total value and is calculated by adding a company’s market capitalization, debt, any minority interest, and preferred shares less cash and cash equivalents. It is used to establish a theoretical purchase price for the entire company.

EBIT or Earnings Before Interest and Taxes, also known as operating profit, shows a company’s profits before the deduction of interest and taxes.

Sector weightings are determined using the Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS"). GICS was developed by, and is the exclusive property of, Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ("S&P") and MSCI Inc. ("MSCI"). GICS is the trademark of S&P and MSCI. "Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS)" and "GICS Direct" are service marks of S&P and MSCI.

Frank Russell Company (“Russell”) is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings and / or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell’s express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. All indexes referenced are unmanaged and capitalization weighted. The Russell 2000 Index is an index of domestic small-cap stocks that measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest publicly traded U.S. companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 1000 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of domestic large-cap stocks. It measures the performance of the 1,000 largest publicly traded U.S. companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell 2000 Value and Growth indexes consist of the respective value and growth stocks within the Russell 2000 as determined by Russell Investments. The Russell Top 50 Index measures the performance of the largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. It includes approximately 50 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership and represents approximately 40% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell Midcap® Index measures the performance of the mid-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 1000® Index that includes approximately 800 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of more than 3,700 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. Source: MSCI. MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indexes or any securities or financial products. This material is not approved, endorsed, reviewed or produced by MSCI. None of the MSCI data is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Small Cap Index is an unmanaged, capitalization weighted index of global small-cap stocks, excluding the United States. The MSCI ACWI ex USA Large Cap Index is an unmanaged, capitalization weighted index of global large-cap stocks, excluding the United States. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of more than 3,700 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The (Center for Research in Security Prices) CRSP (Center for Research in Security Pricing) equally divides the companies listed on the NYSE into 10 deciles based on market capitalization. Deciles 1-5 represent the largest domestic equity companies and Deciles 6-10 represent the smallest. CRSP then sorts all listed domestic equity companies based on these market cap ranges. By way of comparison, the CRSP 1-5 would have similar capitalization parameters to the S&P 500 and the CRSP 6-10 would have similar capitalization parameters to those of the Russell 2000. The performance of an index does not represent exactly any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.

Share:

Subscribe:

Sign Up

Follow: