A ‘Cool’ Way to Invest in AI
article 05-13-2025

A ‘Cool’ Way to Invest in AI

Senior Analyst Zachary Weiss details the thesis for a holding in Royce Premier Fund that can benefit from increasingly strict HVAC regulations and the growing need for cooling in AI-heavy data centers.

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A new position in Royce Premier Fund, AAON (NYSE: AAON) benefits from increasingly strict HVAC regulations and the growing need for cooling in AI-heavy data centers. The company designs and builds custom rooftop units for commercial buildings and, through its BASX subsidiary, supplies liquid- and air-cooled solutions for high-density server halls. AAON’s business model has distinct—and increasing—competitive advantages over legacy players like Carrier and Lennox. We expect that to translate into accelerating market share gains and earnings growth, while the company’s growing role as a preferred supplier to the data-center cooling space adds an additional layer of upside.

AAON’s business model meets our rigorous criteria for inclusion in Premier. The company is a leader in the large and growing HVAC and AI data center markets. Equally important, its products are needed, regardless of the economic environment. Additionally, its equipment prices represent a small part of customer budgets, supporting pricing power. A significant portion of revenues is tied to replacement, which smooths demand through cycles. There is minimal debt on the balance sheet, and the business model does not require substantial CapEx, which helps generate high returns on invested capital.

AAON’s business model has distinct—and increasing—competitive advantages over legacy players like Carrier and Lennox. We expect that to translate into accelerating market share gains and earnings growth, while the company’s growing role as a preferred supplier to the data-center cooling space adds an additional layer of upside.
—Zach Weiss

The market gave us a buying opportunity after AAON’s shares fell about 50% from their late-2024 highs due to what we viewed as a classic market overreaction to two short-term dynamics. Shares of companies serving the AI ecosystem sold off when DeepSeek, China’s ChatGPT analogue, stoked fears that AI infrastructure spending would slow. Then, channel destocking ahead of a refrigerant rule change caused an earnings miss in the December 2024 quarter earnings release (which was reported in February). We viewed both as temporary dislocations rather than structural threats.

Those same refrigerant rules now work in AAON’s favor. Beginning in 2025, the EPA banned high-GWP (Global Warming Potential) refrigerants in new commercial rooftop units, forcing every manufacturer to redesign their product lines. AAON’s engineering culture and flexible manufacturing processes let it adopt these new gases with minimal retooling, while mass-production competitors must overhaul large, fixed-spec lines. The cost disruption for the legacy HVAC manufacturers narrows what had historically been a roughly 15% price premium on AAON’s equipment versus commodity equipment and accelerates its share gain opportunity in a large addressable market.

Data-center cooling is an even larger catalyst. AI servers generate eight-to-ten times more heat than conventional racks, and McKinsey estimates 70% of global data-center capacity will need specialized thermal management by 2030. AAON anticipated that shift when it bought BASX, a leading player in the highly fragmented data center cooling solutions market with unmatched capabilities, back in 2021. Last October, BASX won a record $174 million liquid-cooling order from a hyperscale customer, and management thinks this business can reach $1 billion in revenue “within a few years,” which is a 15-fold increase compared to the revenues it generated when AAON purchased the asset. A new 787,000-square-foot Memphis plant will add increasingly productive capacity.

AAON (NYSE: AAON)
4/30/24-4/30/25

Subsequent Average Annualized Three-Year Return for the Russell 2000 Starting in Monthly Rolling VIX Return Ranges

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

After its shares pulled back late in 2024, AAON’s board renewed a $100 million share-repurchase program, initiated an additional $30 million buyback, and hiked the dividend by 25%, reinforcing confidence in the business outlook. The stock has been trading at roughly 20 times our forward, cycle-normalized free-cash-flow estimate, which we view as reasonable for a Premier business with visible secular tailwinds and a balance sheet that limits downside.

Important Disclosure Information

Average Annual Total Returns as of 3/31/2025 (%)

  QTD1 1YR 3YR 5YR 10YR SINCE
INCEPT.
DATE ANNUAL
OPERATING EXPENSES
NET               GROSS
Premier -3.74 -5.07 3.36 8.84 7.34 10.51 12/31/91  1.19  1.19
Russell 2000
-2.31 0.87 3.27 9.88 6.32 8.74 N/A  N/A  N/A
1 Not annualized.

All performance information reflects past performance, is presented on a total return basis, reflects the reinvestment of distributions, and does not reflect the deduction of taxes that a shareholder would pay on fund distributions or the redemption of fund shares. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate, so that shares may be worth more or less than their original cost when redeemed. Current month-end performance may be higher or lower than performance quoted and may be obtained at www.royceinvest.com. Operating expenses reflect the Fund's total annual operating expenses for the Investment Class as of the Fund's most current prospectus and include management fees and other expenses.

Mr. Weiss’s thoughts and opinions concerning the stock market are solely his own and, of course, there can be no assurance with regard to future market movements. No assurance can be given that the past performance trends as outlined above will continue in the future. The performance data and trends outlined in this presentation are presented for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Historical market trends are not necessarily indicative of future market movements.

Percentage of Fund Holdings As of 3/31/25 (%)

  Premier

AAON

0.5

Company examples are for illustrative purposes only. This does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock. There can be no assurance that the securities mentioned in this piece will be included in any Fund’s portfolio in the future.

Return on Invested Capital is calculated by dividing a company’s past 12 months of operating income (earnings before interest and taxes) by its average invested capital (total equity, less cash and cash equivalents, plus total debt, minority interest, and preferred stock).

Sector weightings are determined using the Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS"). GICS was developed by, and is the exclusive property of, Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC ("S&P") and MSCI Inc. ("MSCI"). GICS is the trademark of S&P and MSCI. "Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS)" and "GICS Direct" are service marks of S&P and MSCI.

Frank Russell Company (“Russell”) is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell’s express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of domestic small-cap stocks. It measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest publicly traded U.S. companies in the Russell 3000 index. The performance of an index does not represent exactly any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.

This material is not authorized for distribution unless preceded or accompanied by a current prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing or sending money. The Fund invests primarily in small-cap stocks, which may involve considerably more risk than investing in larger-cap stocks. The Fund also generally invests a significant portion of its assets in a limited number of stocks, which may involve considerably more risk than a more broadly diversified portfolio because a decline in the value of any one of these stocks would cause the Fund's overall value to decline to a greater degree. (Please see "Primary Risks for Fund Investors" in the prospectus.) The Fund may invest up to 25% of its net assets (measured at the time of investment) in securities of companies headquartered in foreign countries, which may involve political, economic, currency, and other risks not encountered in U.S. investments. (Please see "Investing in Frank Russell Company (“Russell”) is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell’s express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of domestic small-cap stocks. It measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest publicly traded U.S. companies in the Russell 3000 index. The performance of an index does not represent exactly any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.

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